Climate change to cause more frequent crop failures by 2100.
Climate change may cause once-in-a-century crop failures every decade by 2100, new research shows.
Why it matters
- Climate change is increasing the instability of crop yields.
- More frequent crop failures could lead to financial strain and hunger, especially in vulnerable regions.
By the numbers
- For every degree of warming, yield variability increases by 7% for corn, 19% for soybeans, and 10% for sorghum.
- At 2 degrees of warming, soybean failures could occur every 25 years instead of once every 100 years.
- By 2100, soybean failures could happen every 8 years if emissions continue to grow.
The big picture
- The study highlights the compounding danger of yield instability, not just average declines.
- Vulnerable regions like Sub-Saharan Africa, Central America, and South Asia are at higher risk.
- Global food prices could be affected, as seen in a 2012 drought in the U.S. Midwest.
What they're saying
- One commenter jokes about expecting rollercoasters to harvest crops.
- Another points out that the rich may not be as affected, reducing their incentive to address the issue.
- A comment questions the term "once-in-a-century" events, suggesting they're becoming more frequent due to climate change.
Caveats
- The study notes that regions at risk often lack irrigation infrastructure, which can mitigate yield instability.
- The study is based on models and projections, which have inherent uncertainties.
What’s next
- Urgent investment in heat- and drought-resistant crop varieties, improved weather forecasting, better soil management, and stronger safety nets like crop insurance is needed.
- Cutting emissions driving global warming is identified as the most reliable solution.